Jan 31, 2024 · wine education · 32 min read

No and Low-Alcohol Wine: Demand, Production, and Future Trajectory

Introduction
From YOLO to NOLO
Demand: declining consumption and health motivations
Supply: quality improvements and production economics
Summary of drivers
Reduce and reuse to make NOLO
Thermal distillation approaches
Membrane-based approaches
Comparative summary
NOLO has ample room to grow
Headwinds
Mitigation options
Positioning and outlook
References
Appendix 2 - Definition of no and low alcohol wine (NOLO)
Appendix 3 - Best selling products on Boisson are priced higher than traditional wine

“This essay was originally written as part of a professional wine examination. It has been lightly edited for clarity and web reading.”

Introduction

This opening section frames the scale of recent interest in no- and low-alcohol wine (NOLO) and previews the market and production questions examined in the essay.

Interest in no and low alcohol wines (NOLO) has never been higher. This <11% alcohol by volume (ABV) category[^1] just hit a new peak in worldwide Google searches (Google, 2023); it is also the trending topic at major wine exhibitions (Carter, 2023).

Chart Figure: Google Trends interest in no and low alcohol wine.

With worldwide NOLO sales predicted to grow twice as fast as the overall wine market, and this rapid growth expected across major wine consuming countries, the race is on to secure first-mover advantage in a category still in the introduction stage of its product life cycle (Fact.MR, 2022; Statista, 2023). High volume producers (e.g. Yellow Tail) and low volume wineries (e.g. Barton Guestier) alike are experimenting with NOLO as a new revenue stream (Frank, 2022).

Chart Figure: Projected NOLO market growth relative to the overall wine market.

The paper is structured around three questions:

Why NOLO is growing fast, from a demand and supply perspective
How NOLO is made, with resulting tradeoffs in quality and price
Where NOLO can go, and my contrarian opinion on NOLO marketing

From YOLO to NOLO

This section examines the demand- and supply-side forces behind NOLO’s growth, tracing shifts in consumption, health perceptions, and production capability.

Demand: declining consumption and health motivations

NOLO’s growth can be attributed to (1) Decreased alcohol consumption due to social and political factors, impacting demand (2) Improved NOLO product quality driven by economic and technological factors, influencing supply. The increased demand for NOLO attracts new supply, in a reinforcing growth loop that has excited both consumers and producers.

Alcohol consumption has declined in recent decades, particularly among the younger generation (Loy et al., 2021). This shift has led some consumers to substitute traditional alcoholic wines with NOLO alternatives, as outlined in a World Health Organization (WHO) report (World Health Organization, 2023). For example, “Dry January” started as a discussion about having a temporary break from drinking[^2] (Alcohol Change UK, 2023).

Research indicates that the decline in alcohol consumption has been a global phenomenon for the past 50 years, and not country specific[^3] (Our World in Data, 2017).

Chart Figure: Long-run decline in alcohol consumption across countries.

A 2022 study of Nordic and Mediterranean countries also showed mostly declines in the proportion of adolescent drinkers (Rossow et al., 2022).

Chart Figure: Adolescent drinking declines in Nordic and Mediterranean countries.

A more extensive study in 2015 concurred, revealing a gradual decline in alcohol use among both European and North American youth (Looze et al., 2015).

Chart Figure: Youth alcohol use declines in Europe and North America.

Health is the main reason for this decline. In a turnaround from the “You Only Live Once (YOLO)” mentality of the past[^4], people today are increasingly health conscious. Consumers are still worried about not fully experiencing life, but are also concerned that their health might prevent them from doing so, and changing what they consume as a result (Texas Health, 2023). Across generations, people are increasing their prioritisation of health (The New Consumer & Coefficient Capital, 2022).

Chart Figure: Surveyed shifts toward health prioritization.

For example, ~35% of American consumers surveyed adopted new eating patterns to “prevent future health conditions” (International Food Information Council Foundation, 2018). The 2020 COVID pandemic also put a spotlight on this social norm, with consumers being more observant of their health as a result (NutriSystem, 2023).

Beyond the social aspect, politics have played a role in shaping attitudes toward alcohol, by increasing awareness of its adverse health effects. With the World Cancer Research Fund finding strong evidence that alcohol consumption increases cancer risk[^5], and the WHO estimating harmful alcohol usage represents 5% of the global disease burden[^6], governing bodies such as the EU are considering stronger alcohol regulations (World Cancer Research Fund, 2018; World Health Organization, 2022).

These regulations are typically aimed at restricting and reducing alcohol consumption (Looze et al., 2015; Goold et al., 2017). The stronger the national alcohol policy, the lower the alcohol consumption in that country (Brand et al., 2007). For example, over a period of 50 years Norwegians have reversed their attitude and become increasingly supportive of alcohol control policies, due to increased awareness of alcohol health risks (Rossow & Storvoll, 2013).

Because of these social and political factors, consumers are reconsidering their relationship with wine, believing that reducing alcohol consumption will decrease calorie intake, blood pressure, and cancer risk (World Health Organization, 2023). Additionally, for women, considerations related to pregnancy and nursing have driven them to explore NOLO, as noted by Dawn Maire, founder of a NOLO startup (Reiley et al., 2023).

For example, a 2017 study found that “health” was the main reason participants decreased their wine consumption[^7] (Stockley et al., 2017).

Chart Figure: Health as a primary reason for reduced wine consumption.

These health-conscious consumers are choosing NOLO as a substitute for traditional wine. A 2014 UK study found that the top reason for lower alcohol purchases was “it’s better for my health” (Bruwer et al., 2014).

Chart Figure: UK motivations for lower-alcohol purchases.

A separate 2013 Australian study supported this, with “health” being the second most common motivation for interest in NOLO (Saliba et al., 2013).

Chart Figure: Australian motivations for NOLO interest.

However, these demand influences on NOLO would not have been fulfilled, had product quality missed expectations. After all, NOLO is trending, not grape juice. Economic and technological factors have increased the supply of quality product offerings, past a tipping point of consumer acceptance.

Supply: quality improvements and production economics

From an economic perspective, NOLO’s high growth provides an attractive new profit opportunity, with industry experts discussing how “there’s money to be made” for producers (Carter, 2023). Companies that effectively target the younger demographic through enticing social media, graphics, and packaging have experienced notable success (Beaton, 2022). For example, Boisson, a NOLO retailer, increased its revenue 300% from 2021 to 2022, and recently raised venture funding from Pernod Ricard[^8] (Business Wire, 2023).

From a technology perspective, NOLO quality has improved greatly over the past 30 years. Historically, sweetness was used to compensate for the lack of ethanol, with sugar levels >40 g/L being common[^9] (Schulz et al., 2023). However, the typical drinker associates sweetness with lower quality cheap wine[^10], resulting in NOLO also being perceived as low quality even before being tasted (Josselin et al., 2008).

Chart Figure: Sweetness perceptions and quality associations in NOLO.

Modern technology has changed this. Lower processing temperatures and enhanced aroma adjustments have elevated product standards (Bucher et al., 2020; Pickering, 2010). While we will discuss the production process in detail in the next section, one such technique is the use of linalool, geranial, and isoamyl acetate extracts to enrich floral and fruity aromas in NOLO, where regulations are less strict than traditional wine[^11] (Ma et al., 2022).

Today, NOLO wines are getting good reviews. For example, Wine Spectator’s review of Ariel Vineyards NOLO Chardonnay described it as “balanced, with varietal-specific aromas and flavors” (Napjus, 2022). A recent 2020 experiment also found no significant difference in how much participants liked NOLO vs standard wine[^12] (Bucher et al., 2020).

Chart Figure: Comparative liking of NOLO vs standard wine.

Summary of drivers

In summary, health has been the main demand driver for NOLO, with profit opportunities and technology improvements the main supply drivers. Although there are secondary reasons such as the affordability of lower taxed NOLO vs higher taxed traditional wine, social influencer campaigns, or a 2018 change in US tax law on higher alcohol wine driving alcohol driving alcohol reduction companies to seek new customers, the country agnostic growth in NOLO is due to the primary reasons above.

Reduce and reuse to make NOLO

This section outlines the main post-fermentation techniques used to reduce alcohol, emphasizing how process choices affect style, quality, and cost.

Unlike “natural wine”, NOLO requires massive human meddling. Instead of “nothing added, nothing taken”, NOLO opts for a “reduce and reuse” approach. Extreme opposites in winemaking philosophies; yet both have achieved success.

Whether red, white, rose, or sparkling, NOLO is typically made via two primary method families, each with subcategories:

Thermal distillation

a. Vacuum distillation

b. Spinning cone column
Semi-permeable membrane

a. Reverse osmosis

b. Osmotic distillation

Thermal distillation approaches

Thermal distillation processes require higher temperatures and cost more than membrane processes. Within this method, vacuum distillation is a common technique already used to adjust traditional wine alcohol levels at many wineries (Motta et al., 2017). Inside a tank, wine is heated at moderate temperatures (15-20C) under vacuum, which evaporates the ethanol. The ethanol vapour rises to the top of the tank, condensing as a distillate in a separate container, reducing the ABV of the tank’s liquid. Producers might opt to reuse volatile aromas from the distillate by capturing and adding them back after distillation (Ma et al., 2022).

Figure: Vacuum distillation process schematic.

Vacuum distillation has a mixed effect on NOLO style and quality. It can significantly reduce many desirable volatile compounds, such as esters, higher alcohols, and terpenes. However, it can concentrate sugars and colour intensity (Sam et al., 2021). It is also quicker to reach a low final level of ABV.

Chart Figure: Vacuum distillation outcomes and tradeoffs.

Spinning cone column (SCC) is a modification of the vacuum distillation process that takes place in two stages to improve aroma retention. SCC consists of a central vertical shaft with convex cones[^13], rotating between other convex cones attached to the interior casing of the tank (Schmidtke et al., 2012). In the first stage, low vacuum pressure and moderate ~28C temperatures are used to recover desirable volatile aromas. In the second stage, higher vacuum pressure and ~38C temperatures are used to remove alcohol (Sam et al., 2021). The aromas from the first stage are reused by combining with the reduced alcohol liquid from the second stage, to create a product stylistically more similar to regular wine, and of higher quality than vacuum distillation.

In SCC, wine is pumped to the top of the tank, onto the 1st rotating cone attached to the central shaft. The spinning results in centrifugal force spraying a thin film of wine outwards onto the 1st fixed cone attached to the tank[^14]. The liquid trickles down this 1st fixed cone onto the 2nd rotating cone, and the process is repeated until it reaches the bottom of the column. While this is happening, a “stripping gas”[^15] is pumped in the bottom of the tank. As the gas rises to the top, it picks up volatile aromas or ethanol through mass transfer. Fins attached to the cones increase turbulence and hence effectiveness of the process. This allows for both a reduction in alcohol, and a reuse of aromas later on (Schmidtke et al., 2012).

Figure: Spinning cone column process schematic.

SCC stands out for its ability to recover desirable aromas with both high efficiency and minimal passes, leading to higher quality NOLO. While it is favoured by producers for its quality outcomes, the downside includes the substantial capital costs for equipment and the requirement for specialised operational expertise, implying higher production volumes are required to make it economical.

For example, BevZero, an alcohol reduction provider, quotes $1-2mm setup costs for SCC (Beverage Trade Network, 2023). Producers may outsource this step to providers such as BevZero, similar to how some sparkling winemakers delegate parts of the production process (BevZero, 2023; Oztruk & Anli, 2015). However, this may not be possible in countries where expected production volumes are too low to justify investment, such as Austria (Gentile et al., 2023).

Membrane-based approaches

Membrane processes typically require lower temperatures but more passes than thermal processes. Reverse osmosis (RO) uses a hydrophilic semi-permeable membrane under high pressure but low 1-5C temperatures. High pressure on the side with a higher concentration solution causes a reverse of the typical osmosis process, resulting in even higher concentrations on that side. This filters out smaller ethanol and water molecules from the base wine over multiple tangential passes through the membrane. The ethanol and water mixture can be further separated through distillation, allowing for reuse of the water in the process (Ma et al., 2022).

Figure: Reverse osmosis process schematic.

RO benefits include aroma retention due to the low operating temperatures, lower capital and operating costs than thermal distillation (therefore possibly lower prices), and being a “clean” technology since the ethanol and water can be reused after extraction. For example, it has a lower rate of higher alcohol and terpene loss compared to vacuum distillation, implying a higher quality NOLO that is stylistically more similar to regular wine (Sam et al., 2021).

RO drawbacks include the multiple passes required for the alcohol reduction, recurring costs for membrane replacement, and legal uncertainties regarding the re-addition of water in the production process, since adding water to wine is banned in some countries (Ma et al., 2022).

Chart Figure: Reverse osmosis impacts on style and aroma retention.

Osmotic distillation[^16] (OD) also uses a membrane for alcohol reduction. Differential vapour pressure on both sides of a hydrophobic membrane causes ethanol to evaporate on one side, diffuse across the membrane, and then condense on the other side with the help of a “stripping gas”[^17] (Schmidtke et al., 2012).

Figure: Osmotic distillation process schematic.

Compared to RO, OD requires lower pressures and temperatures. However, longer processing time is required. OD effect on style and quality is uncertain, with conflicting studies citing minimal aroma compound loss or adverse effects on volatile aromas, depending on the amount of alcohol reduced (Ma et al., 2022; Schmidtke et al., 2012).

Other post fermentation options in NOLO production include nanofiltration, pervaporation, or multistage systems that combine multiple methods. However, these are not as widely used commercially due to cost or lack of research, and we will not be discussing these further (Ma et al., 2022; Schmidtke et al., 2012).

Comparative summary

(Alexandra, 2021; LeBeau, 2018; Mowery, 2021; VE Refinery, 2022)

NOLO has ample room to grow

This section considers market scale, headwinds, and practical responses, before moving to the author’s perspective on category positioning.

NOLO’s current total market revenue of $2bn is a fraction of the total $173bn wine market, implying future growth potential (Fact.MR, 2022; Statista, 2023). Though there are some headwinds ahead, the tailwinds for this category should continue to propel faster growth than the overall wine market. In addition, I would like to propose an alternative approach to NOLO marketing.

Headwinds

Climate change, costs of production, and consumer perception are the three main headwinds to NOLO growth.

Climate change typically results in higher alcohol levels in wine, the reverse of NOLO aims. Sunny winemaking regions have seen alcohol content rise by ~2% ABV over the past 30 years due to the higher sugar concentration at harvest (Goold et al., 2017).

The increased production costs associated with crafting NOLO from quality base wine suggest the need for higher pricing. However, it remains uncertain whether consumers are willing to pay more for a product with less alcohol. A 2020 study indicated reduced consumer willingness to pay for NOLO, supported by a NielsenIQ report revealing an average US NOLO price of $6.84 vs $11.01 for traditional wine (Bucher et al., 2020; NielsenIQ, 2023). In contrast, six of the top eight best-selling NOLO products on Boisson are priced >$20, above the typical cost of traditional wines[^18] (Boisson, 2023).

Chart Figure: NOLO pricing relative to traditional wine benchmarks.

Consumer perception that NOLO products are inferior is also an obstacle. Acceptance of NOLO varies by country, with people adjusting their attitudes only when assured that taste quality would be the same (Saliba et al., 2013).

Chart Figure: NOLO acceptance varies when quality parity is emphasized.

Mitigation options

Producers have multiple options to mitigate the above risks. In the vineyard, planting varieties that naturally make lower alcohol wines (e.g. Furmint), harvesting earlier, or selecting sites of formerly marginal areas benefiting from climate change (e.g. UK) could increase NOLO production resilience (Frank, 2022).

In the winery, usage of glucose oxidase to reduce fermentable sugars or new yeast strains selected for lower ethanol production[^19] could reduce costs in the future. For instance, Athletic Brewing Co has successfully prevented ethanol generation during fermentation for its beers (Mazzeo, 2022). This remains a field of ongoing research due to the complexity of yeast biology in quality wine production (Goold et al., 2017; Schmidtke et al., 2012).

To change consumer perception, producers might consider partnering with the public sector for additional marketing impact. Governments or public health agencies could be open to promoting NOLO, if it helps reduce overall alcohol consumption and improve health outcomes. Having additional funding from other sources will help NOLO reach a larger top of the funnel audience. For example, the UK Department of Health and Social Care is committed to supporting the NOLO industry to increase product availability by 2025 (Gov.UK, 2023).

Since NOLO is not subject to the same restrictions as wine, alternative sales channels can also help with growth. For example, US regulations technically consider the ethanol content destroyed after the NOLO process, placing it under Food and Drug Administration rather than Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau jurisdiction. This makes it possible to sell and offer tastings of NOLO in grocery stores, an attractive marketing opportunity (Beverage Trade Network, 2023).

Positioning and outlook

NOLO technology is likely to improve over time; health conscious attitudes towards alcohol are unlikely to reverse in the short term. Together with the options above, it is likely NOLO continues growing faster than the traditional wine market.

I also believe that current NOLO marketing is missing the point. Rather than harping on the association with wine, NOLO should intentionally brand itself as a standalone category. Consumers do not care that the product was originally made from wine or about the technological breakthroughs behind it. Instead, they want something that tastes good and makes them feel good about their lifestyle choices.

Here, NOLO can learn from sparkling and natural wine. Both fall under the broader category of wine but are regarded as distinct products. Consumers don’t object to the effervescence in their Champagne or the haziness in their natural wine; these characteristics are embraced within their respective styles. Similarly, NOLO should offer a distinct style rather than mimic wine. Transforming into a beverage that people enjoy on its own will also alleviate the current challenges associated with pairing NOLO with food.

Especially noteworthy is the potential rise of a sparkling NOLO product promoted based on its inherent qualities, akin to the recent surge in the hard seltzer market (Grand View Research, 2023). The effervescence can enhance the perception of quality, mask potential faults, and distinguish it from traditional wine. Given positive reviews for sparkling NOLO products (e.g. Thomson & Scott Noughty), it’s not surprising that the majority of current NOLO offerings are of the sparkling variety (Farrell, 2023; Gentile et al., 2023).

Chart Figure: Sparkling NOLO prominence within current offerings.

A hundred years on from Prohibition, the Temperance movement has come and gone, but perhaps a tempered temperance, NOLO movement is on the rise. Health concerns have increased demand for NOLO, with technological and economic factors improving supply.

As these trends mutually reinforce each other in a growth loop, I anticipate sustained and even accelerated growth in the NOLO category. Furthermore, I foresee the ascent of a sparkling NOLO product solely driven by its exceptional taste, breaking free from the limitations of being solely a wine derivative, and evolving to a formidable standalone brand.

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Appendices

Appendix 2 - Definition of no and low alcohol wine (NOLO)

This appendix defines the NOLO thresholds and scope used in the analysis.

Similar to “natural wine”, there is no standard definition for NOLO. A 0.7% ABV wine may be classified as “low alcohol” in the UK, but “non-alcoholic” in China, due to varying regulations (Anderson et al., 2021; Sam et al., 2021)

In this paper we will adopt the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) thresholds of <0.5% ABV for no alcohol wine (OIV, 2012).

We will adopt >=0.5% ABV for low alcohol wine, up to the typical ABV of that wine style (typically ~11% ABV at a minimum, though this varies by wine style) in cases where the alcohol reduction is >20% (OIV, 2012).

We will only include wine where alcohol has been reduced post-fermentation to be intentionally marketed as NOLO. Therefore, we are excluding wines such as sweet Riesling, Moscato d’Asti, or California wines with reduced alcohol for tax reasons (BevZero, 2023).

We are also excluding non alcoholic products that have never been through the fermentation process, such as grape juice or herbal infusions.

An interesting side note is that reducing alcohol for tax reasons was a primary driver of business for alcohol reduction service providers such as BevZero, who had to diversify their income stream after a change in US tax law on higher alcohol wines resulted in less demand for alcohol reduction services.

Appendix 3 - Best selling products on Boisson are priced higher than traditional wine

This appendix summarizes pricing context for best-selling NOLO products in the cited dataset.

(Boisson, 2023)

Figure: Boisson best-selling NOLO products and pricing.